Musings from beautiful Tuscany on Brexit

Brexit

Heart versus Mind.
Crisis Creation or Crisis Aversion.
Which?

First thoughts during a brief 9 day annual leave break in Tuscany (yes I did do a postal vote before leaving UK on 19 June) whilst the Italians gaze at me with mixed feelings of bemusement and consternation! … it’s a small margin but the majority of British people have voted to leave the EU and save the net £8.5 billion that Brussels squanders. What have we given our next generation?

An emotional, angry rejection?

Or a brave and prescient renaissance?

The full geodemographic analysis that the weekend press will no doubt provide will make interesting comprehension.

Nigel Farage says it’s like our own Independence Day – remember, that was when the whole world was threatened by aliens from space, not Europe versus the Americas and Asia-China, so a questionably sensible analogy he makes.

Some macro-economic numbers pose a levelling observation. According to fullfact.org, the UK’s net contribution to the EU is £8.5bn a year. UK GDP is £2.0 trillion and a significant % of this 5th largest GDP in the world’s success will be down to the UK’s leading position in the EU, actually the 2nd largest region in global GDP after the USA. So the cost of membership to the EU club is circa 0.03% of GDP. To put this into perspective if you pay £1,000 for golf or tennis club or health club membership and earn £100K a year, then your club membership represents 1%. So despite the EU’s horrific inefficiencies and anachronism compared to its inception values, UK membership cost for Club EU is peanuts. By losing our position as an easy entry point for the ‘rest of the world’ to the European market of 500 million people, the UK could lose some GDP value (unless you think we can increase our GDP when the UK has no primary industry left, except its leading financial hub status, and no gold reserves worth talking about).

Each 1% loss is £20 billion. That’s 2.5 times more than our membership cost of the EU Club. A 10% correction loss is 25 times more than our membership cost. That’s a really worrying economic dynamic consequence & risk that wasn’t aired in the referendum debates and has now been embraced.

More to the point than Mr Farage’s analogy above is this question, “Has the minute majority of the UK voting population committed Harakiri or resurrected Superman, awakened the roaring lion & the British bulldog?”

Some Harakiri examples:

  • Swindon and the North east have voted ‘leave’. So have they shot themselves in the foot? Will the huge investment and employment from Japanese car giants leave?
  • Wales have plumped for ‘leave’ despite the share of £4bn EU rebate they receive for poor EU regions. The rest of England has served a huge blow to London’s financial centre might in international money movement and compromised the only primary industry left in the UK.
  • As the 2nd largest EU economy that UK is, Brexit has weekend the rest of EU, reduced Sterling’s value and hammered stock market confidence.


Some Superman and British grit examples:

  • What’s the Farage/Johnson super-plan to counter the emotional reaction from other superpowers which wanted us to Remain for EU gateway and financial centre prowess
  • The vote will give UK more control of borders, net migration and micro economic infrastructure.
  • We can use the savings to have more control of investment priorities across the UK. Replacing the share of £4bn farmers receive from the EU is one priority, because food imports will likely become more expensive.
  • We could rebuild some primary industry capability to strengthen international trading, perhaps using rapidly burgeoning social enterprise leverage (a commercial model not historically known in the past when primary industry was declining).
  • The rest of Europe should listen to the UK outcry. UK can help strengthen EU teeth in world trade by streamlining faceless fat-cat Brussels admin inefficiencies and boosting single market trading co-operation.

And obviously there are many, many more observations and implications.

So the other crucial question that never came out in the referendum debates is this…

… what is the Brexit plan of action for the first 180 days after the vote?

… and ditto for Remain had it won, but the urgent one now of course is the Brexit plan.

By ‘plan of action’ I mean what is the agenda to strengthen the UK’s position in Planet Earth’s GDP league table? What is the plan to inspire confidence across the world so the UK looks like it knows what it’s doing. Because GDP wealth from rigorous delivery of trading strength with ‘the single market’ and across the world is what will give the freedom and control that the British people want, not kicking Brussels into touch. Otherwise the Brexit decision could be just pride before the inevitable fall.

For their own microcosm existences there is a clear plan of action businesses must take to steady their ships through the turbulent uncertain waters ahead. Now more than ever businesses must protect and build a thriving dynamic customer / end user database for crm supremacy.

The future is challenging and exciting and frightening. May the gods be with us.